9 Or More Crystal Balls To Select The Best Future? - How To Predict The Future, Improve Life, Make Better Choices, And Improve Solution Seeking – How To Respond To A Troll
A cat has 9 Lives? Perhaps each solution should also have at least 9 lives (IE at least 9 predictive stories or simulations)?
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This is a technique that many successful people have perfected to the point that they can often almost instantly envision 9 different futures, play each of them forward, critically analyze them all, and make the best possible decisions. This is broken into sections in an effort to make it more readable.
NON MATHEMATICAL EXPLANATION
My Grandfather had a hobby farm. He told me how he kept things going as well as possible. He did something like use 9 crystal balls to see the widest range of possible futures, evaluate the results, and make the best choices. He did this alone most of the time, but, in big challenges, he involved others. Later in my engineering career, our predictive models of the future did this with AI when we ran simulations. But I recognized it as essentially the same thing as what Grandfather did. Those of you who have successful independent acreages, farms, etc. are probably doing something like this much or all of the time. When I do this I almost always make better choices and gain a better understanding of a situation. Often the predicted future is very close to what actually happens. When I don’t do this I often regret not doing it, and I often make needless and often costly mistakes. Despite the engineering, simulation, and modeling terms available, this is something everybody can learn to do in their own best ways. I am surprised that I looked and could not find a better article written on this in ways that might reach the widest possible audience. If you know of such an article please let us know in the comments. Perhaps our enemy wants to reserve this powerful technique for itself and fool people into picking a leader of choice, following the model the leader gives, and allowing their ego to be hurt when others suggest looking at different possibilities? Grandfather used to openly discuss all possible futures and solutions without ever owning just one. I will make a crude attempt at describing this powerful technique to a diverse audience here. My hope is that you will offer comments, corrections, suggestions, etc. in the comments. An additional hope is that writers better than me will improve what is written here and get it out to a wider audience. My belief is that if these simple techniques were practiced by a critical mass of people, the COVID nonsense could have been avoided. My hope is that this can somehow go viral, reach a critical mass, and help to turn the tide for humanity and our planet. Solution Seeking has stalled. Perhaps this will help to get it moving again.
It is important to state that this is NOT a requirement for Solution Seeking. We value all solutions that are on topic and given respectfully in an attempt to solve the the urgent problem we face… Our enemy, Warren Buffet’s class (and its puppet minion leaders of most or all organizations world wide), is waging war against us by harming us in many ways. HOW do we STOP our enemy from harming humanity and the planet?
Our enemy, through programs like MKULTRA, has succeeded in changing how people think. Many just select leaders and/or media of choice and follow without critically thinking. If a problem arises in their lives, they often do not try to fix it themselves, but, rather, hire a specialist to fix it, or, if they can’t afford that, they just live with the problem. In the past, successful people learned how to think critically, how to solve problems themselves, how to predict several possible futures, how to discuss them without ego getting in the way so the best options were chosen, and how to adapt when their predictions were wrong and offered learning and improvement opportunities. Some successful people are very adept at doing this all the time now, but I have not seen any publication directed to a diverse audience that describes this. If you are aware of such a publication, please let us know in the comments.
In an attempt to make this as understandable as possible to the widest possible audience, I will use a simple but hopefully relevant example. The example of a troll in an online comment section. The troll is ignorant, misunderstands what you have said, and angers you due to the abusive and insulting comment it makes towards you. For me, my initial inclination is often to anger, to escalate the abuse, fight, hit hard, hit to win. Through experience, I have learned a different way. I learned it is best to hesitate, and consider at least 9 cases, like what Grandfather did, like what some already do so well, like what we did in engineering to make sure we made the best possible choices. It might sound complex but it only takes a minute or two. Often the escalation trading insults with a troll can take a lot longer, and create a negative energy vortex that is challenging to deal with. Here is what I do…
I think of at least three possible responses (Alternatives) as follows. Often there are more alternatives, but, to keep this simple and understandable, I will keep it to three here. Using the example of the troll.
ALTERNATIVES
A. The most aggressive. I allow my anger to control me and escalate the abuse of the troll. I have had a bad day. This troll is going to regret messing with me.
B. A non aggressive response that attempts to clarify and move towards understanding.
C. Ignoring the troll. Get on with other things. Let them send several comments if they wish. Others might see them for what they are. I have better things to do.
For each of the three responses above, I take a minute and think about the future. What might happen. There are many possibilities. To keep it simple, I think of at least 3 possibilities as follows. I think of the odds of each of the three cases, they must add up to 100%. Often I don’t do the calculations, usually it is enough to just think of these three cases. Many have got so good at this that the answer and all alternatives just pop out of their mind in seconds. My grandfather was like that. Many who successfully operate self sustaining acreages are like that. Many make split second decisions, but, when asked, they can tell you all 9 possible futures in surprising detail. It is both a skill and an art. Like with everything, it improves with practice and adjustments, each person does that in their own best ways.
CASES
1. Best case. The best possible outcome.
2. Most likely case. The most likely possible outcome.
3. Worst case. The worst possible outcome.
Our crystal ball now has 9 simulations of the future available as shown below. Take some time to think of all the cases. Grandfather and I have learned to do this very quickly most of the time. At this stage I often do not need to go further. Usually, the best option is clear, I am thankful I took the time to do this, and I usually proceed with C and avoid the negative energy vortex of escalating the abuse with the troll. At times, once the best option is clear, one can work to avoid the worst case, plan for the most likely case, and work to move the most likely case to the best case. Again, this is an art, and many accomplish this within a second or two, but, when asked, they can give surprisingly sophisticated reasoning for their quick decisions. This process is what my grandfather did with the complex challenges on his farm. It is what many people who are on self sustainable acreages excel at. With a little practice, many or most can do it, and it gets better with practice.
The 9 cases are summarized below.
A. ALTERNATIVE A
A.1 Best case for alternative A
A.2 Most likely case for alternative A
A.3 Worst case for alternative A
B. ALTERNATIVE B
B.1 Best case for alternative B
B.2 Most likely case for alternative B
B.3 Worst case for alternative B
C. ALTERNATIVE C
C.1 Best case for alternative C
C.2 Most likely case for alternative C
C.3 Worst case for alternative C
However, to show how this works if the best option is not obvious at this stage, I will work through the simple math with an example below. The numbers will be different for each case. And it is often not best to just take the highest number but, rather, reconsider it, before making a decision. Further, it is often good to go back after the decision is made and the future plays out to learn about how one can improve the process and make better decisions. Again, if the math bothers you, you do not need to look at it. With practice you can do extremely well without the math. If you look at the math and have trouble, please let us know, the odds are that we can help.
The math that follows is not necessary. My grandfather was an excellent simulation modeler who could predict many possible futures and make great decisions, without ever doing a calculation. Some of you may want to try the simple math. I will just do my best to explain it below.
MATHEMATICAL EXPLANATION
Below is an image from a simple spreadsheet that shows the math for this troll example. The math clearly indicates that Alternative C is the best. Many of us know this from experience. But this process is very powerful for things that are unknown. Note that the probabilities for A.1 + A.2 + A.3 add to 100. It is the same thing for B.1 + B.2 + B.3, and for C.1 + C.2 + C.3. Note that the UTILITY for A.1, the most positive CASE for ALTERNATIVE A, is highest, and A.2, the most likely has a lower UTILITY than A.1, And A.3, the worst, has the lowest UTILITY of the A cases. It is similar for B.1, B.2, And B.3. Note the highlighted sum of the products is is much higher for ALTERNATIVE C compared to the other alternatives, clearly indicating ALTERNATIVE C is, mathematically, the best alternative. Note that the map is never the territory, but a good map can be incredibly useful.
The above spreadsheet will do the calculations for you if you follow the instructions. In my browser if I click on the file it will not allow me to edit it, but if I I click on File | Download | Microsoft Excel (.xls) and choose as shown below, download it, and then open it with the available spreadsheet. On your device it might be different.
Please do not get stuck on the spreadsheet download if it doesn’t work for you. There are far too many diverse situations out there for me to guarantee that this will work for you, but it might be worth a try. A calculator, paper, pencil, and eraser will work just fine, maybe better.
Don’t worry. This is simple. If my explanation is bad and needs to improve, please consider doing a better job of that yourself or offering suggestions in the comments and I will do my best to improve it. It might be best to get out a simple calculator and a paper and pencil and try this for yourself to see how powerful and easy it is.
Utility is just a word for the best guess about how good or bad something is. Often in engineering and economics money (dollars, pounds, etc.) is used. In this case we will just use a scale like below.
+100: As good as it can get.
-100: As bad as it can get.
The probability is a guess between 0% and 100%. For each alternative, the probabilities of the cases must add up to 100%. It is best to just do the example, and if it does not make sense, please consider writing it down on your own paper with your own pencil.
A. ALTERNATIVE A – Escalate the abuse with the troll. They started it, and they are going to regret that.
A.1 Best case for alternative A – The troll capitulates and leaves. I feel great. I showed them. Probability estimate: 1%, experience shows that this is not very likely. Utility is 80. On a scale between -100 to 100, this is pretty good. The product of the Probability and Utility for A.1 is obtained by multiplying 1 by 80 as follows: 1 * 80 = 1 x 80 = 80. This can be represented as PA.1 * UA.1 = PA.1 x UA.1 = 80. (Note: * and x both mean to multiply by. Below I use * but it means the same thing as x.).
A.2 Most likely case for alternative A – The troll escalates and then we are faced with another decision and possibly increased anger. Probability 70%. Utility is -20. This is taking up time and going nowhere. It is ruining my day. My mood is bad and remains bad for a long time.
Similar to A.1, PA.2 * UA.2 = 70 * -20 = -1400.
A.3 Worst case for alternative A – Both the troll and I get banned from a great site because we took it too far. The probabilities of A.1 + A.2 + A.3 must add to 100%. Time is short. This would be bad. The Utility is -90. I will put 29% in for the probability. Do the probabilities add up to 100%. Checking… 1% + 70% + 29% = 100%. Good.
PA.3 * UA.3 = 29 * -90 = -2610.
Now add up the products for A.1 + A.2 A.3 as follows.
PU.A1 = sum of products for Alternate A1 = 80 + (-1400) + (-2600) = -3930.
Now to evaluate Alternative A mathematically. Do the same thing for Alternative B and Alternative C. The results are shown above in an image from a spreadsheet. If you ask in the comments I will make the simple Excel and LibreOffice compatible spreadsheet available for you to download.
This example clearly shows that option C is the best option. My biases and errors are built into this answer. Your numbers and answer could be very different from mine. You may choose different categories that make more sense to you. You may choose more than 3 cases, and more than 3 alternatives. Captain Kirk loved that third alternative.
Now, when YOU did this, YOU should have different numbers, and perhaps a different outcome. Discussion of those differences can lead to greater understanding for all participants, and, to better decisions.
NEXT STEPS
So, how can this help in Solution Seeking? Not surprisingly, I have at least 9 ideas, actually, many more, and that is not manageable for these kinds of posts, so we are asking for your help. This is best if we work together as equal partners. Please use the comments to share your ideas and discussions. Hopefully we can work together towards discovering the best possible answer to this question, and perhaps get Solution Seeking moving forward again?
ADDENDUM - ANALYSIS OF 6 SOLUTIONS
The spreadsheet I used for this analysis is available for download at this link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bZEv1koRx1yQ2Z255U6lRitkoY6owVOh/edit#gid=729974591
Please save it as an Excel file as specified earlier in this post.
I did not spend a lot of time thinking about the probabilities and utilities because I wanted to publish this as soon as possible and open it up for discussion. The images below show what I got so far. Discussion of the probabilities and utilities is welcom.
LIST OF ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS
A. Do nothing. God, Devine intervention, Q, or nature will take care of it. Get on with life. Live the best life possible.
B. Do things like this Solution Seeking Substack. Explore peaceful non violent means to accomplish the GOAL stated above.
C. Total ninja, all out bloody no holds barred warfare against the enemy and its minions. Using every means possible. With appropriate planning, strategic analysis, strategic planning, etc. Possibly done lone wolf, alone, with viable soft local targets first, then working up the enemy's command chain all the way to the cowardly, putrid, undisclosed, elusive top.
D. The solution presented in the ADDENDUM POSTED JANUARY 27, 2023 at this URL:
I will call it the MANY SOLUTIONS ALTERNATIVE. A critical mass realize that their root cause enemy is harming humanity and the planet, and devote adequate resources to designing and pursuing their own best solutions, overwhelming the enemy.
E. The BEST GUESS ROOT CAUSE SOLUTION FOR THE WORLD’S PROBLEMS at this URL:
. I will call it THE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY AND MILITARY REALIGNMENT ALTERNATIVE.
F. A less violent form of Alternative C above, as described in ADDENDUM AND PLAN B ADDED JANUARY 26, 2023 and the Pinned Comment of this URL:
ANALYTICAL RESULTS
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Where did you get the figures in the "Probabilities" column? Are these figures arbitrary, i.e. according to one's own estimates? What operation did you do to get the figures in the "Utilities" column? How do you calculate the product (or what is P*U)?
Thank you.
Personally, I would utilize risk management from the Project Management Institute myself. But just my 2 cents as I am a PMP.